CCS Insight Hotline: Predictions for 2008

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Introduction:

This document gives CCS Insight’s predictions of major trends and developments in the mobile and wireless industry in 2008.

In December 2006 we conducted a similar exercise (See CCS Insight Hotline 2006-50: Outlook for Mobile Market in 2007) and many of the trends we identified came to fruition.

As predicted, lengthening contract terms in mature Western European markets resulted in a slow down in contract sales and an increase in prepaid demand. The “orderly transition” to 3G WCDMA we also expected occurred. We estimate over 190 million 3G WCDMA devices will be sold worldwide during 2007 accounting for approximately one fifth of total device sales.

Some of the consolidation we predicted amongst mobile network operators in mature markets has not occurred as rapidly as expected. This is believed to be a result of network operators looking to invest in growth markets instead – a trend we anticipate will continue in 2008.

As predicted the leading mobile device manufacturers asserted their dominance. The top five players captured 83 percent of the global market in the third quarter of 2007 (see CCS Insight 3Q 2007 Global Mobile Phone Market Analysis). Nokia dominated the market more comprehensively than expected and its long held goal of 40 percent market share looks likely to be reached in 4Q 2007.

The growing interest by major Internet giants in the mobile and wireless market was also predicted. This came to fruition with major “Web 2.0” brands such as Google / YouTube / Picasa, Yahoo! / Flickr, eBay / Skype and others stepping up their mobile activities. The most notable announcement during 2007 was Google’s decision to launch Android (see CCS Insight Hotline 2007-45: Google announces open software platform for mobile devices). We expect more activity in this area in 2008 with a flurry of further partnership and cooperation deals being announced across the industry.

Our predictions are presented in three categories:

  • Mobile network operators
  • Applications and Services
  • Devices and software platforms

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